ACLE Seminar: Felix Poege (Bocconi University)
Valuing Patents: Technological Uncertainty and Appropriation
- Date
- 14 October 2025
- Time
- 13:00 -14:15
- Location
- Roeterseilandcampus - building A
- Room
- A3.01 and online (see below)
Abstract
Consistently measuring the value of patents across a wide range of technologies and contexts has long been a challenge for technology managers and researchers. In this context, stock market-based valuations have recently become popular. We propose that such valuations are best understood as the expected value of the intellectual property right at grant, factoring in technological uncertainty and the degree to which the patent will facilitate appropriation of eventual commercial value. We empirically demonstrate the role of uncertainty and appropriation in the context of pharmaceutical patenting and among AI patents. First, we find that stock market abnormal returns indicate that patents issued later in the drug-development process are more valuable, even though these ``secondary'' patents are generally seen as weaker than the more highly cited patents covering a new molecule. Consistent with this, we show that the valuation of AI patents increases strongly after the viability of a certain technology is demonstrated publicly. Second, in the context of pharmaceuticals, we show that a firm's ability to capture value from a given patent is associated with its stock market return. We find valuation premia for secondary patents that extend the monopoly-life of a drug, and for some new-use and continuation patents.
Practicalities
This event will be a hybrid event. The seminar will take place in Roeterseiland campus (REC) building A, room number A3.01, and will also be streamed online via Zoom.
About the speaker
Felix Poege is an Assistant Professor at Bocconi University's Management and Technology Department. As an innovation scholar, he explores the interplay between corporate strategy and innovation performance, including firms' responses to competitive challenges or public policy, as well as the impact of nonmarket strategies on innovation, such as strategies for accessing and creating scientific knowledge.
About ACLE
The Amsterdam Center for Law and Economics (ACLE) is a joint initiative of the Faculty of Economics and Business and the Faculty of Law at the University of Amsterdam. The objective of the ACLE is to promote high-quality interdisciplinary research at the intersection between law and economics.